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External Partners Alumni Search Submit Return to home Search Search About About Olin Home Why Olin Equity, Diversity & Inclusion Leadership & Strategy News & Media Events Contact Us Programs Programs Home Explore Our Programs BS in Business Administration MBAs Specialized Master's Doctoral Executive Education Dual Degrees Faculty & Research Faculty & Research Home Faculty Directory Research Research Centers Olin Brookings Commission Olin Award Student Resources Student Resources Home Career Services Center for Experiential Learning Entrepreneurship Academic Calendars Student Organizations For Current Students For Military Veterans Admissions Admissions Home Scholarships & Aid Attend Program Events Visit Olin Ask a Student Student Profiles Request Information Refer a Candidate External Partners Alumni COVID-19 cases could nearly double before Biden takes office December 10, 2020 By Sara Savat 3 minute read COVID Testing Home News COVID-19 cases could nearly double before Biden takes office President-elect Joe Biden has signaled that fighting the COVID-19 pandemic will be an immediate priority for his administration. He recently announced a coronavirus advisory board of infectious disease researchers and former public health advisers along with an updated strategy that will include increases in testing and contact tracing, as well as transparent communication. But Inauguration Day is still a month away. The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases is likely to increase to 20 million by the end of January, nearly doubling the levels around the time of his election, an Olin COVID-19 forecasting model predicts. The model, which&＃160;accurately forecasted the rate of COVID-19 growth over the summer of 2020, was developed by Olin&＃8217;s &＃160;Meng Liu,&＃160;Raphael Thomadsen&＃160;and&＃160;Song Yao. Their&＃160;paper&＃8212;presenting the model and its forecasts&＃8212;was published November 23 by&＃160;Scientific Reports. One of the key reasons for the increased accuracy of this model over other COVID-19 forecasts is that this model accounts for the fact that people live in interconnected social networks rather than interacting mostly with random groups of strangers. &＃160; Raphael Thomadsen &＃8220;This allows the model to forecast that growth will not continue at exponential rates for long periods of time, as classic COVID-19 forecasts predict,&＃8221; said Thomadsen, professor of marketing. The evolution of COVID-19 depends on how much we, as a country, continue to social distance or return back to normal levels of interaction. This chart shows forecasted cases in the U.S. through the end of January 2021 based on our current social distancing levels, as well as less and more social distancing. An&＃160;interactive online version of the model&＃160;also allows users to observe the impact different levels of social distancing will have on the spread of COVID-19. The current social distancing reflects an approximate 60% return to normalcy, as compared with the level of social distancing before the pandemic. If we continue, as a nation, at the current level of social distancing, the model forecasts that we are likely to reach 20 million cases before the end of January 2021. &＃8220;Even small increases in social distancing can have a large effect on the number of cases we observe in the next two and a half months,&＃8221; Thomadsen said. &＃8220;Going back to a 50% return to normalcy, which was the average level of distancing in early August, would likely result in 5 million fewer cases by the end of January. We could effectively squash out the COVID growth within a few weeks if we went back to the levels of social distancing we experienced in April. &＃8212;Raphael Thomadsen However, the researchers caution that this is likely a conservative estimate due to increased testing and the upcoming holidays. &＃8220;In our model, we assume that only 10% of cases are ever diagnosed, meaning that we will start to hit saturation,&＃8221; said Song Yao, associate professor of marketing and study co-author. &＃8220;However, more recently, testing has increased, and probably more like 25% of cases are diagnosed. In that case, total COVID cases would increase beyond 20 million in the next few months unless we, as a society, engage in more social distancing.&＃8221; &＃8220;The upcoming holiday seasons will present a great deal of uncertainty to the outlook of the pandemic as people travel more at the end of the year. This will likely make our forecast an optimistic one,&＃8221; said Meng Liu, assistant professor of marketing and study co-author. About the Author Sara Savat As a senior news director for social sciences, I write about political science, religion (and their intersection), sociology, education, anthropology, philosophy and linguistics. I have a passion for storytelling and enjoy working with our world-renowned faculty and members of the media to bring research to life for the public. Prior to joining the Public Affairs team, I worked in public relations at SSM Health and covered academic medicine at Saint Louis University. I have a master’s degree in communication from SLU. Outside of work, I am most likely to be found at a dance studio or cheering from the sidelines of a soccer field. My family and I also love traveling, camping and visiting national parks. Contact Us For assistance in finding faculty experts, please contact Washington University Public Affairs. Monday&＃8211;Friday, 8:30 to 5 p.m. Sara Savat, Senior News Director, Business and Social [email protected] &＃160; Kurt Greenbaum,Communications [email protected] Twitter: WUSTLnews Share article Apply Now Visit Us Request Info One Brookings Drive, St. Louis, MO 63130-4899 [email protected] 314-935-7301 News & Media Events Faculty Directory WashU Center for Career Engagement Washington University home Olin Links Sitemap Privacy Policies Title IX Accessibility ©2024 Washington University in St. Louis