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External Partners Alumni Search Submit Return to home Search Search About About Olin Home Why Olin Equity, Diversity & Inclusion Leadership & Strategy News & Media Events Contact Us Programs Programs Home Explore Our Programs BS in Business Administration MBAs Specialized Master's Doctoral Executive Education Dual Degrees Faculty & Research Faculty & Research Home Faculty Directory Research Research Centers Olin Brookings Commission Olin Award Student Resources Student Resources Home Career Services Center for Experiential Learning Entrepreneurship Academic Calendars Student Organizations For Current Students For Military Veterans Admissions Admissions Home Scholarships & Aid Attend Program Events Visit Olin Ask a Student Student Profiles Request Information Refer a Candidate External Partners Alumni Olin research: Machine learning reduces language barriers in global trade May 14, 2019 By Kurt Greenbaum 4 minute read Home News Olin research: Machine learning reduces language barriers in global trade Machine learning and artificial intelligence have exploded onto the scene in recent years, offering the hope of greater business efficiency. At the same time, researchers have found virtually no empirical evidence supporting the promised strides in labor productivity and economic activity. That is, until now. Meng Liu A forthcoming paper from WashU Olin researchers draws a direct connection between language translation driven by artificial intelligence and an increase in international trade. The paper, which analyzes data from online e-commerce site eBay, is among the earliest tangible signs that AI and machine learning are living up to their promise. &＃8220;There is plenty of anecdotal evidence that AI has exceeded humans in many areas, but there was not much&＃160;causal&＃160;empirical evidence,&＃8221; said&＃160;Meng Liu, visiting assistant professor of marketing. She notes that there&＃160;is&＃160;evidence that AI&＃160;correlates&＃160;with economic growth. &＃8220;There seems to be a discrepancy between what our intuition says about AI versus what is actually observed.&＃8221; For example, aggregate productivity growth rates have been stagnating since the 2000s. Xiang Hui Liu and coauthor&＃160;Xiang Hui, assistant professor of marketing at Olin, cited&＃160;2017 research from MIT and the University of Chicago&＃160;highlighting the paradox between high expectations and modest productivity results for artificial intelligence. That paper, accounting for slower economic activity, cited stagnant or declining numbers for productivity and median income while the new technology burst on the scene. &＃8220;Pointing to aggregate growth statistics, AI pessimists say it&＃8217;s not really helping our productivity,&＃8221; Hui added. &＃8220;The problem is that it normally takes time for organizations to ramp up complementary innovations, be it organizational or technological, to harvest AI&＃8217;s benefits. This is where our paper comes in. Let&＃8217;s look at the question in a friction-free platform where they use an AI-based translation system.&＃8221; Their paper, &＃8220;Does Machine Translation Affect International Trade? Evidence from a Large Digital Platform,&＃8221; was accepted in April for publication in the journal&＃160;Management Science.&＃160;Using data from eBay, which managed more than $14 billion in trade across more than 200 countries in 2014, Hui and Liu demonstrated that a moderate improvement in the quality of language translation increased trade between countries on eBay about 10.9%. The paper contrasted trading results between buyers and sellers in the United States against those in countries that do not primarily speak English, including countries in Latin America, Europe and Asia. They looked at trade before and after eBay implemented a new AI-driven machine translation service in 2014. By some measures, that service improved translation quality by about 10%. The researchers also compared their results to a measure of trade cost Hui had explored in earlier research. As distances decrease between trading partners on eBay, the cost of trade drops. &＃8220;What we show is that the introduction of machine translation is equivalent to reducing distances between countries by 26.1%.&＃8221; The research team took two approaches to analyzing the trade data. First, they contrasted US exports to countries where the advanced translation was available against those where it was not. The graph above shows results after the technology was introduced&＃8212;and the visible increase in US exports to countries where it was available. Next, the research team mitigated the effect of other factors that could have increased trade (more marketing, for example) by examining how machine translation affected longer versus shorter product titles. The theory was that translating longer titles required greater cost and effort, but would yield greater payoff&＃8212;meaning the benefit of introducing machine translation should be higher for these items. Meanwhile, if eBay increased marketing, it would affect longer titles similarly to shorter ones. However, the graph below shows the greater effect on longer product titles. &＃8220;These comparisons suggest that the trade-hindering effect of language barriers is of first-order importance,&＃8221; the researchers wrote. &＃8220;Improved machine translation has made the eBay world significantly more connected.&＃8221; The authors noted that since their research was completed, Google has rolled out an even more powerful language translation tool &＃8220;that has significantly improved translation quality&＃8221; and, based on their research, &＃8220;the effect (of Google&＃8217;s software) on cross-border trade could be large.&＃8221; The authors argue that the introduction of machine translation on eBay provides a clean experiment where we can measure impacts. But ultimately, AI&＃8217;s effect will like be seen in almost all economic sectors. As new systems come online, the authors wrote, &＃8220;they will provide new opportunities to assess the economic impact of AI via natural experiments such as the one examined in this paper.&＃8221; About the Author Kurt Greenbaum As communications director for WashU Olin Business School, my job is to find and share great stories about our students, faculty, staff, and alumni. I've worked for the Consortium for Graduate Study in Management as communications director and as a journalist for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Sun-Sentinel in South Florida and the Chicago Tribune. Contact Us For assistance in finding faculty experts, please contact Washington University Public Affairs. Monday&＃8211;Friday, 8:30 to 5 p.m. Sara Savat, Senior News Director, Business and Social [email protected] &＃160; Kurt Greenbaum,Communications [email protected] Twitter: WUSTLnews Share article Apply Now Visit Us Request Info One Brookings Drive, St. Louis, MO 63130-4899 [email protected] 314-935-7301 News & Media Events Faculty Directory WashU Center for Career Engagement Washington University home Olin Links Sitemap Privacy Policies Title IX Accessibility ©2024 Washington University in St. Louis