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External Partners Alumni Search Submit Return to home Search Search About About Olin Home Why Olin Equity, Diversity & Inclusion Leadership & Strategy News & Media Events Contact Us Programs Programs Home Explore Our Programs BS in Business Administration MBAs Specialized Master's Doctoral Executive Education Dual Degrees Faculty & Research Faculty & Research Home Faculty Directory Research Research Centers Olin Brookings Commission Olin Award Student Resources Student Resources Home Career Services Center for Experiential Learning Entrepreneurship Academic Calendars Student Organizations For Current Students For Military Veterans Admissions Admissions Home Scholarships & Aid Attend Program Events Visit Olin Ask a Student Student Profiles Request Information Refer a Candidate External Partners Alumni Research finds way to predict new customer behavior April 27, 2017 By Melody Walker 2 minute read Home News Research finds way to predict new customer behavior Brand-new customers pose an interesting challenge to marketers in this era of big data. Marketing strategy and tactics are often driven by valuable insights gleaned from past customer data collected over time from repeat purchases and transactions. But newly acquired customers arrive without a data trail. Is it possible to predict the future behavior of new customers? As a doctoral student in marketing, Arun Gopalakrishnan seized on this challenge to create a new computer model to provide guidance to managers who want, and need, to forecast newly acquired customers&＃8217; behaviors. Gopalakrishnan began this research as part of his doctoral studies at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and completed the research at Olin Business School where he is an assistant professor of marketing. His paper won the 2017 Olin Award for faculty research that impacts business. Working with two professors at Wharton, Gopalakrishnan developed two cross&＃8208;cohort models (called vector changepoint models) that introduce a new framework for analyzing data that reveals insights into patterns of customer behavior over time. Specifically, the new models reject the notion that pooling data from all previous customers to make an educated guess about the behavioral patterns of the newest customers provides an accurate forecast. In other words, the researchers found that new customers are not simply going to behave like the &＃8220;average&＃8221; existing customer. That assumption, according to the researchers, &＃8220;ignores the potentially changing behavioral patterns&＃8221; from one set of customers acquired during a certain time period to another. The new mathematical model takes into account what it calls &＃8220;regime changes&＃8221; or past customer behavior changes that were influenced by new firm policy, government regulations, economic factors, competitors&＃8217; actions, or unknown drivers of change. Our findings suggest that simply using older cohorts [sets of customers acquired in the past] as a proxy for predicting new cohorts without understanding any potential regime changes may lead to inaccurate predictions because certain aspects of customer behavior may have changed, going from the oldest customer cohort to the newest one. When tested against other models, the Olin Award&＃8211;winning research model/forecast tool outperforms other benchmarks. It can be applied to any industry that acquires customers who engage in repeat transactions over time. The new model also simplifies the process of mining the data. Link to research summary and paper. How to forecast new customer behavior Olin professor joins two others in crafting a computer model to forecast behaviors of newly acquired customers. Play video About the Author Melody Walker My nickname around the office is "Scoops" because I always have the latest news from the halls of Simon, Starbucks, or the STL startup scene. Thanks to staff and student bloggers, I'm not alone in reporting on the Olin community here on the Blog. Don't be shy, post a comment or send us your story. New bloggers always welcome! Contact Us For assistance in finding faculty experts, please contact Washington University Public Affairs. Monday&＃8211;Friday, 8:30 to 5 p.m. Sara Savat, Senior News Director, Business and Social [email protected] &＃160; Kurt Greenbaum,Communications [email protected] Twitter: WUSTLnews Share article Apply Now Visit Us Request Info One Brookings Drive, St. Louis, MO 63130-4899 [email protected] 314-935-7301 News & Media Events Faculty Directory WashU Center for Career Engagement Washington University home Olin Links Sitemap Privacy Policies Title IX Accessibility ©2024 Washington University in St. Louis